The UK's EU election results are coming in
Jun. 7th, 2009 09:20 pmThis could be very interesting, since some people are predicting Labour (the party of government, for those in other countries who don't know) to come in fifth or even sixth in some UK regions, behind the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UK Independence Party, Greens, and and one of the various nationalist parties in the list somewhere (Plaid Cymru, Scottish Nationalist Party, British National Party, even Mebyon Kernow in the south-west - crazy). If this is so, and results somewhat like this are repeated in the General Election next year, it could mean the end to the 91 year period where the Liberals (in various incarnations) have been the 3rd party and the Conservatives and Labour were 1st or 2nd.
But maybe not, because the Liberals didn't do well in the last European election (from a platform that is more pro-EU than probably all of the above, which makes it very interesting - and telling - that their 1 in 7 share of the vote is so low) so they may come in 4th place again this time, making it hard to tell what will happen. They usually underperform at general elections, but that is because people figure a Liberal vote is wasted due to them being the 3rd party - a significant change in that perception brought about by a Labour thrashing today could alter all that.
But maybe not, because the Liberals didn't do well in the last European election (from a platform that is more pro-EU than probably all of the above, which makes it very interesting - and telling - that their 1 in 7 share of the vote is so low) so they may come in 4th place again this time, making it hard to tell what will happen. They usually underperform at general elections, but that is because people figure a Liberal vote is wasted due to them being the 3rd party - a significant change in that perception brought about by a Labour thrashing today could alter all that.
Interesting times (if you think politics is interesting, obviously...)
EDIT: A couple of hours later, it looks like the forecast for the Liberal Democrats may have been optimistic and they have failed to capitalise on Labour's problems, with the votes going instead to fringe parties and independents. So it could be business as usual next year after all.